Euro area business cycle dating

See Data Sources The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.

How does that relate to your recession dating procedure?

A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough.

The scarcity of research for studies of business cycles in India along with data limitations might be some of the reasons why policymakers in India are not too concerned about this issue.Why doesn’t the Committee accept the two-quarter definition?The Committee’s procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways. See Methodology Does CEPR use a different approach to NBER?See The CEPR and NBER Approaches What data does the Committee use?As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for 2001 or 2003, even though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity (though not for two quarters).

765

Leave a Reply